An Important message

I. An Important message from Fritz Franzen to persons interested in convincing others about the validity of the scientific conclusions.

Energy both enters and leaves at the earth’s surface.  The entering energy comes as radiation from the sun and  radiation and other heat transfer mechanisms  from the atmosphere . The energy from the atmosphere  has  as its origin radiation from molecules that were excited by radiation from the earth and is the GHG energy .  One of the greenhouse gases effective in this transfer is carbon dioxide.  It is an experimentally established fact (i.e. the Keeling curve) that the quantity of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been increasing (and at an increasing rate( for over fifty years.  Therefore, based upon this increase,  it is concluded that, beyond doubt, there is an increase in the amount of energy coming into the earth . The energy leaving the earth’s surface does so as radiation (Planck radiation, principally in the infrared).  The amount of energy lost as Planck radiation depends upon the average 4^th power of the temperature of the earth (the Stefan-Boltzmann law).  This means that the higher the temperature the more energy is radiated away. The maximum amount of energy that can be lost in this way is the total amount that enters the earth as described above.   In this case the increase in the GHG energy resulting from the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere  equals the increase  in the energy loss due to an increase in the average 4^th power of the temperature of the earth.

Now recall that the amount of energy entering the earth’s surface is known to be increasing because, as the Keeling curve shows, the concentration of the GHG carbon dioxide  is increasing. If that energy increase is to be matched by an increase in the radiation from the earth the  average fourth power of the temperature must increase correspondingly. There is an ongoing effort to measure the average temperature of the earth and track its dependence upon time over years. There has been an argument about how to interpret these data. Those who wish to deny the reality of climate change choose some portion of the data and claim that climate change is over or is decreasing because they discern a decrease or cessation of the increase in the earth’s temperature in the data they have chosen. But the straightforward discussion presented above shows that the temperature must increase if the increase in the incoming energy is to be matched by outgoing energy, and if the temperature increase did , in fact, slow down or cease then the net amount of energy at the earth’s surface would be increased to a greater extent because the amount of energy lost would be less than the amount entering.  It is, in other words, unfortunate that so much debate has centered upon the temperature time curve.  The GHG effect is not a temperature increase but rather an increase in the net amount of energy entering the earth.  This is unquestionably increasing (i.e. consider the Keeling curve as it currently appears) and is increasing to an even greater extent if the slope of the temperature time curve  decreases.  The temperature-time curve is, in fact, a red herring. Those who point to an interpretation of this curve that they believe is indicative of a reduction in the GHG effect because the temperature increases, according to their interpretation, are getting smaller or vanishing are in fact getting the argument backwards since such indications, were they true, would be indicative of a greater, not a lesser, increase in the energy entering the earth due to the GHG effect.