Factual Answers to Some FAQs

Factual answers to some faqs

1. At what rate is the carbon dioxide entering the earth’s atmosphere?

16 billion metric tons per year.

              2. What is the primary source of this carbon dioxide?

Combustion of fossil fuels currently (2011) produces 32.5 billion metric tons per year. Thus, through the combustion of fossil fuels alone, more than twice the rate at which it is  appearing in   the atmosphere.

3. Where does the rest of the carbon dioxide go?

It is difficult to know the amount with precision, but the increasing acidity of the ocean indicates that a large portion dissolves there. 

 4.  What is the power emitted to space at the top of the atmosphere by the earth?

  About 240 watts per square meter

5. How much power is emitted  to the atmosphere by the earth’s  surface?

390 watts per square meter

 6. Why do the answers to 4 and 5  differ?                                             

 About 250 watts per square meter originating from the earth is absorbed in the atmosphere    and 150 watts per square meter(the difference between answers 4 and 5)) returns to the earth’s surface

7. What is the fraction of that power that arises because of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?

   About 39%

 8  What is the current rate of increase of power to the earth’s surface as a result of the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?

  About

 9. By how much would the earth’s average temperature increase if the carbon dioxide           concentration doubled?

 About 1.5 degrees plus feedback effects (estimated to be another 1.5 degrees or more)

10. At the current rate of increase in the rate at which carbon dioxide is entering the atmosphere how long would this doubling take?

120 years

The Basic Physics and Chemistry of Climate Change

 III. A pdf version of power-point presentation on the basic Physics and Chemistry the GHG effect of carbon dioxide (GWPPT10.5.pdf) is available upon request from hfranzen@iastate.edu 

An Important message

I. An Important message from Fritz Franzen to persons interested in convincing others about the validity of the scientific conclusions.

Energy both enters and leaves at the earth’s surface.  The entering energy comes as radiation from the sun and  radiation and other heat transfer mechanisms  from the atmosphere . The energy from the atmosphere  has  as its origin radiation from molecules that were excited by radiation from the earth and is the GHG energy .  One of the greenhouse gases effective in this transfer is carbon dioxide.  It is an experimentally established fact (i.e. the Keeling curve) that the quantity of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been increasing (and at an increasing rate( for over fifty years.  Therefore, based upon this increase,  it is concluded that, beyond doubt, there is an increase in the amount of energy coming into the earth . The energy leaving the earth’s surface does so as radiation (Planck radiation, principally in the infrared).  The amount of energy lost as Planck radiation depends upon the average 4^th power of the temperature of the earth (the Stefan-Boltzmann law).  This means that the higher the temperature the more energy is radiated away. The maximum amount of energy that can be lost in this way is the total amount that enters the earth as described above.   In this case the increase in the GHG energy resulting from the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere  equals the increase  in the energy loss due to an increase in the average 4^th power of the temperature of the earth.

Now recall that the amount of energy entering the earth’s surface is known to be increasing because, as the Keeling curve shows, the concentration of the GHG carbon dioxide  is increasing. If that energy increase is to be matched by an increase in the radiation from the earth the  average fourth power of the temperature must increase correspondingly. There is an ongoing effort to measure the average temperature of the earth and track its dependence upon time over years. There has been an argument about how to interpret these data. Those who wish to deny the reality of climate change choose some portion of the data and claim that climate change is over or is decreasing because they discern a decrease or cessation of the increase in the earth’s temperature in the data they have chosen. But the straightforward discussion presented above shows that the temperature must increase if the increase in the incoming energy is to be matched by outgoing energy, and if the temperature increase did , in fact, slow down or cease then the net amount of energy at the earth’s surface would be increased to a greater extent because the amount of energy lost would be less than the amount entering.  It is, in other words, unfortunate that so much debate has centered upon the temperature time curve.  The GHG effect is not a temperature increase but rather an increase in the net amount of energy entering the earth.  This is unquestionably increasing (i.e. consider the Keeling curve as it currently appears) and is increasing to an even greater extent if the slope of the temperature time curve  decreases.  The temperature-time curve is, in fact, a red herring. Those who point to an interpretation of this curve that they believe is indicative of a reduction in the GHG effect because the temperature increases, according to their interpretation, are getting smaller or vanishing are in fact getting the argument backwards since such indications, were they true, would be indicative of a greater, not a lesser, increase in the energy entering the earth due to the GHG effect.         

Resources for meetings, programs, and consultation

II Resources for meetings, programs and consultation

Members  of the  CAT at the Unitarian Universalist fellowship of Ames, IA who can be called upon to give presentations or contacted for information:

1. Erwin (Erv) Klaas.  Retired ecologist who has kept up with climate change science by reading and speaking out on the issues. He is the contact person for Citizens Climate Lobby in Ames.

2. Sam Wormley. Sam argues climate change issues and what science has to say about climate change with naysayers on Usenet,  teaches climate change issues at the  Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at Iowa State University.  Adj. Professor of Astronomy at MCC.  Strengths: patience and a sense of humor. Limitation: must be in Ames most Sunday AM’s for our fellowship programs.

3. Carolyn Heising. Carolyn is Professor of Industrial, Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering at Iowa State University (since 1993. Prior to coming to Ames she was on the faculty at Northeastern Univerity (1984-92) and at MIT (1980-84).  She is an expert in probabilistic risk assessment and vulnerability risk assessment.  These assessment techniques are currently being applied throughout the world to assess the vulnerability of systems and communities to climate change.  She has been invited three times by the government of India to speak at a climate change seminar in Gwalior, India.  In February 2014 she  will return to India to speak at an international conference on climate change to be held in Gwalior.

4. Hugo (Fritz) Franzen. Fritz is a Physical Chemist who has spent over ten years developing an appreciation for the basic Physics and Chemistry of the greenhouse gas effect.  This basic science is not statistical  inference or computer simulation but is science that was developed primarily during the last century and forms the basis of  much that has been done in this area during the last several decades.  It is Fritz’s view that the basic science is far more accessible than the simulations and statistical details and has not received the attention it deserves.